My 2025 Baseball Hall of Fame ballot
My 2025 Baseball Hall of Fame ballot.
By Mike Bass
mbass@mikebasscoaching.com
A singles hitter who didn’t walk much, didn’t slug much and didn’t play in the major leagues until he was 27 years old could be the first position player unanimously voted into our Baseball Hall of Fame.
Sounds about right for the Hall, doesn’t it?
The voting for Cooperstown can seem wacky at times, but Ichiro Suzuki might be the right choice at the right time when the results are announced Tuesday.
Simply known as Ichiro, he was the easiest pick on my ballot, a defining player of his era who broke convention and barriers. Why not shatter another?
A quarter century ago, he became the first position player to sign out of Japan (by a month) and to play in an MLB game (by a day). Anyone remember who was second? Tsuyoshi Shinjo, who signed with the New York Mets.
The more celebrated Ichiro and the flashier Shinjo both started fast, but only Ichiro lasted. For a decade, Ichiro was both phenomenon and anachronism. At a time of great power (and chemistry) in the major leagues, the seven-time Japanese batting champion stood out one base at a time, one single after another.
Each year from 2001-10, he made the All-Star team, won a Gold Glove, batted over .300 and topped 200 hits. He led MLB in hits seven times – including a record 262 in 2004 – and finished with 2,244 just before he turned 37.
Ichiro and his game started to age, naturally. Still, he lasted into his 40s and finished as the seventh player in MLB history with more than 3,000 hits and 500 stolen bases, destined to join the other six in Cooperstown.
He was so good at what he did, even modern analytics reward it. From 2001-10, only Albert Pujols and Alex Rodriguez topped his 54.8 bWAR for position players. His WAR7 of 43.7 is better than the average Hall right fielder.
And that is without slugging or walking.
If a voter excludes Ichiro for a 107 OPS+ that would be the worst of any Hall corner outfielder, what can you do? Voting is an individual thing, and I respect the process.
That said, it is confounding that reliever Mariano Rivera (Class of 2019) is the only unanimous selection. It doesn’t mean he is the greatest player of all time, and it was supposed to end all-for-one blocking. It didn’t. Derek Jeter fell short the next year. Go figure.
Ichiro was not the greatest position player in history, but he was a pioneer and a historic performer. If you include his 1,278 hits in Japan, his 4,367 overall tops Pete Rose’s 4,256. Should Ichiro hold the asterisked record? Should Japanese legend Sadaharu Oh hold the career home run mark? I wish he would have been able to play here, too. Ichiro’s ability to continue his excellence in both leagues, and to lead the way for other Japanese hitters to move here, only adds to his case.
At last check, all 150 ballots listed in Ryan Thibodaux’s Hall tracker included Ichiro.
Here are the rest of my selections:
BILLY WAGNER (10th ballot): This is his final chance for 75 percent. After reaching 73.8 last year, I would be shocked if he falls short this time. This is not a ballot stocked with no-doubters, and anyone who wavered in the past can reasonably tilt toward Wagner now.
He was a dominant one-inning reliever, and once I appreciated him for what he was, I voted for him.
Wagner’s 422 saves rank eighth now, not quite Cooperstown level, but his 2.31 ERA and 187 ERA+ beat seven of the eight Hall of Fame relievers, trailing only Rivera (2.21 ERA and 205 ERA+). Among pitchers with 800 or more innings, Wagner owns the highest strikeout rate for batters faced (33.2 percent) and per nine innings (11.9) and the lowest opponent batting average (.187), according to FanGraphs’ Jay Jaffe.
JIMMY ROLLINS (4th): I added him late to my ballot last year, to keep him in the conversation. I was not entirely convinced he belonged. but I feel stronger about his case this time.
At a time when peak years are being highlighted – especially with Phillies double-play partner Chase Utley on the ballot – it was important to consider someone with more longevity and traditional value. Rollins compares well to a lot of Hall shortstops, just not of this century and not in more modern measurements.
His WAR (47.6), JAWS (40.1) and OBP (.324) are relatively low in an age of slugging shortstops. His batting average is not ideal (.264), but he had some power (231 homers), he could run (470 steals), he could play defense (four Gold Gloves), he made multiple All-Star teams (3), he won an MVP (2007) and he helped the Phillies win one World Series (2008) and reach another (2009). And he played, finishing with 2,455 hits in 2,275 games.
He is the only shortstop in major league history with 2,400 hits, 200 homers, 100 triples, 500 doubles and 400 steals, according to Chris Budig’s Cooperstown Cred.
CARLOS BELTRAN (3rd): It is time. I resisted in the past because of his still-fresh role in the Astros’ sign-stealing scandal. He has served his penance. Those who remained active players received immunity and anonymity, which apparently was the only way to ensure their cooperation, and I get it. If Beltran was a ringleader, I was comfortable singling him out. But he didn’t do this alone, his team didn’t stop him, baseball didn’t stop him, he has paid for going far beyond gamesmanship, this wasn’t like he gambled on his team as a player or manager, and it is time to move on.
By the numbers, the nine-time All-Star and three-time Gold Glove winner is a Hall of Fame center fielder – 438 homers (5th among center fielders), 1,587 RBIs (5th), 70.1 WAR (8th), 2,725 hits (9th). By my vote, he is, too.
ANDRUW JONES (8th): He is usually a late scratch from my ballot. He was a late addition this time.
For a decade, he was one of the best players in baseball. The power. The defense. The type of numbers you don’t usually see from a center fielder. That he cratered around age 30 reflected a lack of discipline. His finishing numbers on offense were disappointing. Just 1,933 hits. A 111 OPS+. A .254 batting average. A domestic-violence plea deal didn’t help his cause.
I don’t buy the defensive WAR that considers him the best center fielder in baseball history, which is often espoused to prove his worthiness. I agree with Bill James that any metric showing Jones saved twice as many runs per inning as Willie Mays is flawed. The information of earlier eras is way too limited to make such grandiose proclamations. Other defensive research indicates he didn’t deserve all 10 of his Gold Gloves, but still show he was a standout center fielder, arguably the best of his generation.
I still don’t know that he has a better Hall case than Jim Edmonds or Dale Murphy, but they no longer are on the ballot, and we are in the era of seven-year peak. Jones enjoyed a spectacular stretch, and I weigh than higher now. He finished his career with an impressive 434 home runs, and his 44.7 WAR7 ranks ninth among center fielders.
If I were a “Small Hall” proponent, I would easily dismiss Jones. If I were a “Big Hall” advocate, I would have voted for him years ago. I fall in the middle, making Jones a borderline pick. He was one of many this time. Instead of submitting a small ballot in what might be my final one, I leaned in on peak performance and added Jones.
CHASE UTLEY (2nd): Meet the ultimate Peak Years player. As voters more and more scratch the seven-year itch, I decided to vote for the player who exemplifies it.
I hesitated last year because I wasn’t sure he played well enough, long enough, to warrant selection. But from 2005-09, he made four All-Star teams, won four Silver Sluggers at second base and finished in the top eight in MVP voting three times. His combined WAR was 39.7 – 45.5 if you add an injury-shortened 2010.
And that was the problem. Too many injuries.
According to FanGraphs’ Jaffe, Utley’s 2005-14 WAR of 59.7 was second to Pujols’ 67.7. Which is impressive but deceiving. The last four years of that, Utley’s was 14.2.
He finished with just 1,885 hits, and no Gold Gloves, although modern metrics laud his defensive acumen.
Utley’s overall 64.5 WAR is 15th, five points below Hall average at second base, but his 56.9 JAWS is 12th and right around Hall average. His WAR7 is 49.3, which would rank him ninth at the position, and everyone else in the top 10 is in the Hall except the more recently retired and PED-punished Robinson Cano.
CC SABATHIA (1st): I don’t think he is a typical first-ballot inductee, but Sabathia has cross-generational appeal that will ensure his election at some point, so why wait?
He pitched when wins and losses for a starting pitcher mattered more. He finished 251-161 and was a six-time All-Star. His ERA was high at 3.74, but it was just 3.14 from 2006-12, when he finished in the league’s top 10 for ERA six times and compiled a 122-57 record.
According to Cooperstown Cred and Baseball Reference, Sabathia’s 140 ERA+ during that stretch tied Roy Halladay for the best in baseball, his 38.4 WAR trailed only Halladay’s 40.9, and his 122 wins trailed only Justin Verlander’s 124.
Again, peak stretches matter.
Here is what else mattered: Sabathia is one of only three lefties to finish with 3,000 strikeouts and one of 15 “Black Aces” pitchers to win 20 games in a season. He won a Cy Young Award and finished in the top five four other times.
Ballot contemporaries Mark Buehrle and Andy Pettitte can make similar Hall cases, and finished with almost identical ERA+ totals, but Buehrle didn’t have the dominant seasons and Pettitte had a PED stain. Sabathia had a higher WAR, WAR7, JAWS than the other two.
FELIX HERNANDEZ (1st): Again, I don’t think he exceled long enough to merit being a first-year Hall of Famer. Frankly, he is no slam dunk at this point for Cooperstown. But I want King Felix to stay on the ballot because he changed the way we view starting pitching.
That puts him over the top and earned my vote.
In 2010, he finished just 13-12 for a 101-loss Seattle team. Steve Carlton could justify winning the 1972 Cy Young with a 27-10 record and 1.97 ERA for the 59-96 Philadelphia Phillies, but 2010 was a paradigm shift.
Hernandez finished over .500 only because he won his last start. His 13 wins were the fewest ever for a Cy Young starting pitcher for a full season. Was this evolution or revolution? He did lead American League pitchers in WAR (7.2), ERA (2.27), innings (249 2/3) and starts (34).
His run of excellence wasn’t long, but what a run it was.
From 2008-15, King Felix finished in the top two for Cy Young three times and top 10 six times. The same was true for ERA. From his late 2005 debut at age 19 through his 2016 age-30 season, he compiled a 154-109 record, a 51.2 WAR, a 3.16 ERA and a 126 ERA+.
He stumbled the rest of his career to finish with a 49.7 WAR, 3.42 ERA and 117 ERA+. His 169 wins would be the fewest for any starting pitcher elected by the writers since Sandy Koufax in 1969.
Hernandez was not Koufax.
He didn’t have to be. He was King Felix.
And he just might be a Hall of Famer for his day.